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He expects to publish research in the coming year that will zero in on the speculative behavior leading to gentrification in some neighborhoods. He's doing it by analyzing property transaction records, Postal Service mail-forwarding information and census track data. He's also begun to see evidence in survey data that middle-income people are leaving Miami Beach and other places with nuisance flooding that makes it difficult to get around at high tides or insure a car. Those people will crowd out existing affordable housing, especially rentals, he said. No one can turn a Sluts in southleigh eye to the projections everyone uses in South Florida: If Keenan's research bears out, people could be departing the very beachfront communities that were off-limits to black people by law and custom until the mids.
And in the era of climate change, those fleeing sea-level rise will be on the lookout for a place to live on higher ground, which is likely to push people of color and the poor out of neighborhoods that have historically been mostly black or Caribbean. Already that's happening, although climate has little to do with it, and Keenan and other researchers are seeking ways to identify where and how it's happening because of climate change. Don't expect high ground to be much better As seas rise, it won't be pretty, said Sam Purkis and Gregor Eberli, marine geologists at the University of Miami who offered to explain the area's geologic history and how it could help predict the effects of sea-level rise in the coming decades.
And then it will be devastating or destructive in some places. You sort of go over that tipping point where the water doesn't just wash up, but sort of takes out the coastal environment, the coastal construction. Everything that's under the road. That becomes very costly to keep replacing every time this happens. Nonetheless, during his own home search earlier this year, he drove around the city with elevation maps that helped him identify his home in Coconut Grove, approximately 16 feet above sea level. That map of the city before the drainage canals that manipulated the water flow of the Everglades shows a series of settlements along higher ground.
Many of them are hot neighborhoods today, including neighborhoods like Miami Shores and Coral Gables that had deed restrictions prohibiting blacks and Jews. Some of Gladwin's best-known maps were created for the CLEO Institute, a climate change advocacy group run by Caroline Lewis, an energetic former science teacher who skillfully recruits everyone she encounters into supporting her mission to teach people about global warming. Lewis leads climate education courses all over South Florida; the city of Fort Lauderdale required all employees, including police officers and trash collectors, to take her training several years ago. The maps are especially helpful in her community climate education programs, which often are paid for with grants from organizations with an interest in helping people be more aware and adaptable to the effects of climate change, including heat waves, more intense tropical storms and, of course, sea-level rise.
Among the maps Lewis likes to share is a multicolored Gladwin creation showing elevation in central Miami. On the flip side are clusters where banks, investors and landlords hold 15 properties or more. Many of the clusters are in areas where the sea level is 9 feet and higher. It doesn't prove there's a coordinated effort to buy up property on high ground as a sea-level rise investment strategy, but it does offer evidence that climate gentrification may be among the real estate factors at work in lower-income neighborhoods on high ground in Miami. Lewis in her climate education work often also shows people a data visualization program developed at FIU called "Eyes on the Rise.
It also allows people to report flooding during extreme events like the fall king tides, said Susan Jacobson, a journalism professor at FIU who helped develop the program. Her organization, which advocates for Haitian immigrants, fought in recent years to define the boundaries of Little Haiti on official city neighborhood maps in part so that the people who live there aren't invisible. Bastien said they feared that if less of the neighborhood is officially named Little Haiti on government maps, it will be easier to displace the Haitian immigrants who settled there and made it the vibrant community it is today. They'd simply be priced out.
We were left to fend for ourselves in this depressed and drug-infested area. Marleine Bastien, founder, Haitian Women of Miami "We were left to fend for ourselves in this depressed and drug-infested area," she said. Artists are now priced out of the neighborhood they helped put on the map with their colorful street murals. And speculators have turned their attention to Little Haiti just to the north. Some of it may have been inevitable. But climate change has added another layer of concern, Bastien said. Developers aren't interested in rehabilitating his father's home on the short strip of Northeast 58th Street, where houses are about 10 feet above sea level. They want to buy the block and redevelop it.
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